Climate and weather in the project

The project is located east of the Andes between the lake General Carrera and the Northern ice field.

The valley has continental trans-andean temperate cold boreal climate, with cold boreal forest and progressive change into shrub steppes, as result of deforestation and overgrazing. The valley is the coldest in the region. It has its own microclimate, less vulnerable to climate change. There is no point in looking for signals from previous climate changes in the valley, as any of these have been swamped by the destructive fires and other anthropogenic impacts in the last 80 years.

The moderating effect of the lake General Carrera: the valley has less extreme weather than places further away from the lake.

Due to massive deforestation the usual climate-modulating effect of forests is almost absent, the trees do not absorb as much CO2 as expected. The local climate is more resilient to climate change thanks to the Andes mountain chain.

The project is:

an option for a natural climate buffer;

providing for an option of a “temporal corridor” for land conservation and nature restoration in a changing climate;

restoring peat lands, which are storing more carbon (CO2) than all other vegetation types including the growing forests.

However, benefits of restoration decline rapidly with climate warming:

- Climate change, quite visible in the valley and the region, had to be taken into account in order to anticipate pressure on the reforestation project. The project is studying ancient climates, as by 2030 the global climate of the Earth will look like that of three millions years ago: Le climat de la Terre va ressembler à celui d'il y a trois millions d'années.pdf , as well as the impact of ecocides on climate.

-Extreme weather episodes, resulting from climate change, change the ecosystems: annual species can adapt, not the perennial ones.
-In the era of climate change reference ecosystems in restoration become irrelevant.
-The major problem of climate change in protected areas is destruction of the forest and of the quality of the forest.

Rewild to mitigate the climate crisis

In this sector the weather is dominated by two factors. The first, and there is no equivalent part in the world in which this factor plays such a crucial role, is the very strong and highly predominant west wind while the second one are the Andes and their ice fields, in particular the fast melting glacier. The area has strong west winds year-round, these winds put the vegetation under stress due to enhanced evapotranspiration. In the region the cold is a strong limiting factor, reducing the warm season to 4-5 and sometimes just to 2-3 months only. There are only small seasonal changes in the temperature regime in contrast to the same latitude in the northern hemisphere, but "all the seasons can be observed in a single day” which is absolutely true in the project.

Weather records for the last 17 years are available in the project.

The project registered:

The strongest wind was 71 m/s or 200 km/h- just a gust.

It is not unusual to have sustained winds of 20 -25 m/s or 80 km/h.

There were extreme rain events in August 2010 and again in May 2011, resulting in with floods and landslides. As well as in March 2023.

Recent thunderstorms, unknown until recently in the region, are due to climate change.

Several years of drought, like the area around. Drought and humidity are expected to increase.

landslide in the valley 2011

Weather forecast sites usually underestimate the influence of the Northern Patagonian ice field on the valley and forecast more precipitations and less wind than in reality.

Contribution of the region to the climate change:

• Massive deforestation by fire = drastic reduction in greenhouse gases absorption;
• Clearing fires of last century = a region-wide increase of emissions. Fires accelerate global warming because of

the enormous quantities of carbon dioxide released in the atmosphere;

• Change of land use for agriculture is a major contributor to climate change,

Changes in land use and climate change.pdf

• Massive draining of wetlands in the region contributed to local climate change,

Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake.pdf

• Livestock = 55% of the greenhouse gas emitted by agriculture come from livestock.
• Massive wetland’s sphagnum mining in the region (legal and illegal) undermines its carbon storage potential.
• Soil and moisture have a great influence on climate: the soil of the valley, and of the area, is seriously degraded.

At present: Development of mass tourism in a region accessible only by planes or cruise ships continues contributing to the climate crisis. Cruise ships emit three times more CO2 than airplanes

Majority of offset projects that have sold the most carbon credits are junk.

The local ecosystem, novel and fragile, is exposed and very sensitive to climate change, here the climate changed already 80 years ago. Also:

• The hole in the ozone layer over the region affects the climate of the region more than do the greenhouse gases, this phenomenon might persist until 2050-2060.
• Adapting to climate breakdown is very expensive, the area does not have the resources. The real question is: how can we adapt to the new and ever changing Nature needs?
• Water crisis in the region will intensify with climate breakdown.
• Declines in animal and bird species have vastly limited the ability of plants to adapt to climate change.
• Due to global warming species are shrinking. 'Ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruption.
• Climate change has a significant impact on the emergence of animal diseases.
• Cloud formation has been disrupted, as living organisms affect clouds and are very important for cloud formation.
• The Southern Ocean is expelling massive quantities of CO2, Massive ocean carbon sink spotted burping CO2 on the sly.pdf, also World’s oceans are losing power to stall climate change (United Nations);
• El Niño effects are generally quite prominent in the region, El Niño events will intensify under global warming.pdf.

Earth is having fever and we are the virus - adapted from James Lovelock.

“The impact of melting glaciers will have a catastrophic effect in Chile, unlike in other regions of the world”,

Prof. Martin Beniston, University of Geneva

World is at its hottest for at least 12,000 years

CO2 in Earth's atmosphere nearing levels of 15m years ago

Climate crisis:

According to the IPCC report March 2023, the World risks descending into a climate ‘doom loop’ :

- Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years;

- Human-induced global warming of 1.1 degrees C has spurred changes to the Earth’s climate that are unprecedented in recent human history.

- Climate impacts on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than expected, and future risks will escalate rapidly with every fraction of a degree of warming.

- Some climate impacts are already so severe they cannot be adapted to, leading to losses and damages.

All top 10 findings. Global fire emissions database.

Its probably too late, as the climate disaster is here and the total climate meltdown cannot be stopped.

And climate adaptation is virtually impossible.

Climate projections:

Change might happen very abruptly, as the surrounding glaciers might melt and disappear very fast, the Leones glacier is already at its minimum and polluted.

Climate moderation solutions quite often are damaging for nature:

Climate moderation policies are a major deforestation factor in Europe:

can cutting down ancient trees be good for the Earth?

Climate moderation policies can undermine nature restoration perspectives;

Energy wood pellets;

Forest cuts for solar energy farms.

Bird population declines due to renewable power sources.

Trees cut down massively to make way for wind farms.

Summer